The Price of Money is Going Up / Jamie Rush, Tom Orlik, and Stephanie Flanders -- From Wicksell to Bernanke: A Brief History of the Natural Rate of Interest / Jamie Rush and Tom Orlik -- A New Model of the Natural Rate of Interest / Jamie Rush and Martin Ademmer -- Hard Times, Happy Days, and Electric Sheep: How Slowing Productivity Growth Dragged Down the Natural Rate of Interest, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution May Push It Up Again / Ana Andrade -- Demographic Destiny: How Baby Boom Savers Drove the Fall of the Natural Rate and Will Drive the Rise / Stuart Paul and David Wilcox -- No More Free Lunch: Rising Debt Will Push Borrowing Costs Higher / Maeva Cousin and Jamie Rush -- Temperature Rising: How Global Heating Will Drag the Natural Rate of Interest Down, and Investment in Net Zero Will Push It Up / Maeva Cousin and Jamie Rush -- The Return of History: How A Second Cold War Could Drive the Natural Rate Higher / Maeva Cousin, Dan Hanson, Eleonora Mavroeidi, Tom Orlik, Jamie Rush, Bhargavi Sakthivel, and Jennifer Welch -- China Shock: How China's Saving Impacts US Borrowing Costs / Chang Shu, David Qu, Eric Zhu, and Tom Orlik -- The Problem with Petrodollars: How Cristiano Ronaldo, an Artificial Moon, and Flying Taxis in the Desert May Push US Interest Rates Higher / Ziad Daoud -- Russia's Revenge: How Sanctioned States Dodge the Weaponized Dollar / Alex Isakov -- The Rich Get Richer, the Rates Get Lower: How Rising Inequality Pushed the Natural Rate Lower and Artificial Intelligence Could Extend the Trend / Selva Bahar Baziki and Adriana Dupita -- The Era of Falling Rates Is Over / Jamie Rush -- Monetary Policy in an Age of Scarcity / Jamie Rush, Dan Hanson, and Maeva Cousin -- A More Expensive World: What Does It All Mean? / Stephanie Flanders

"In the final decades of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st, long-term borrowing costs fell - with significant consequences for the global economy and financial markets. The Price of Money introduces a new model of the natural rate of interest, bringing together a top-down estimate of the level, with bottom-up estimates of the drivers. The results show that falling trend growth and baby boom savers accounted for about half of the three-percentage point decline in the natural rate for the US between 1970 and a trough in the mid-2010s. Global spillovers account for most of the rest of the decline. The model suggests the natural rate has climbed more than half a percentage point since the trough, partly the result of massive fiscal stimulus. Drawing on forecasts for the key drivers, The Price of Money projects the natural rate for the US and other advanced economies in the decades ahead. The main finding: borrowing costs have further to climb"--